Fig. 2: Dynamic stocks and flows of global PV capacities.

a Global historical annual installed capacities by different types of PV technologies from 2000 to 2022. b Future possible global PV capacities stocks toward 2050 under three International Energy Agency’s energy scenarios (SPS, SDS, and NES). c Failure probability distribution of PV modules under different loss scenarios. d–f Newly installed capacities for PV power under SPS, SDS, NES in the early-loss scenario (the newly installed capacities in the regular-loss scenario are provided in Supplementary Fig. 8a–c). g, h Annual decommissioned capacities under the SDS for early-loss and regular-loss scenario (The decommissioned capacities under the SPS and NES are provided in Supplementary Fig. 9). i Cumulative decommissioned capacities under three energy scenarios (shaded areas represent the range between early-loss and regular-loss scenarios). The three energy scenarios are defined as follows: SPS Stated Policies Scenario, SDS Sustainable Development Scenario, NES Net-Zero Emissions Scenario. The five photovoltaic (PV) technologies include: m-Si monocrystalline silicon, p-Si polycrystalline silicon, a-Si amorphous silicon, CdTe cadmium telluride, CIGS copper indium gallium selenide, GW denotes gigawatt.