Fig. 1: Calibration curves for the external validation performance of the final STRATIFY models (CPRD Aurum).

Green line corresponds to the line of equality, red line the calibration curve with 95% CI and yellow dots the deciles of predicted risk. The 5- and 10-year models were re-calibrated using the derivation dataset. For one-year re-calibration was not required. Groups represent tenths of the linear predictor, as created between deciles. Histograms underneath each calibration plot show the distribution of predicted probabilities.