Fig. 3: Projected impacts of climate change and fishing on macrofauna biomass and carbon fluxes.

Projected changes in macrofauna biomass (a) and carbon export (b) as a function of change in global near-surface air temperature (TAS) under SSP 1–2.6 and SSP 5–8.5 scenarios. Changes are estimated annually relative to a reference period (1990–1999). In (a), FishMIP mean biomass outputs and the associated standard deviation (shaded blue areas) are plotted for comparison with BOATS outputs. Projected changes in macrofauna fecal pellets (c) and carcasses (d) export as a function of projected change in biomass, under a scenario with fishing. Changes are estimated annually relative to a reference period (1950–1959). In b–d, the dashed lines represent the hypothesized loss in carbon export when only driven by the change in biomass. Full lines in (b–d) represent the losses in carbon export when the mechanisms described in Fig. 1 are also taken into account, highlighting the compensatory mechanisms at play. In all panels, the thick solid lines represent the average value, shaded areas represent standard deviations, and each dot represents an annual ensemble mean of BOATS outputs. Icon created in BioRender. Mariani (2025) https://BioRender.com/8hxgiqu.