Fig. 2: Annual tuberculin skin test percent prevalence from 2017 to 2021 in Jiangsu Province, China.

Graph displays the annual percent prevalence of tuberculin skin test positivity at differing millimeter cutoffs for each year from 2017 to 2021 in Jiangsu Province, China. Each point for each year represents the number of students tested during that year in representative schools. Therefore, the denominator for each year may be distinct. Millimeter cutoffs can be seen for 5 mm (left top panel), 10 mm (right top panel), and 15 mm (bottom panel). The gray shaded area on the right is the time period in which Covid-19 restrictions were put in place in Jiangsu Province (starting in February 2020). Gray circles represent the observed percent prevalence of tuberculin skin test positivity during each year of testing in the included cities. The solid red line represents the fitted model of the observed percent prevalence data from pre-COVID (January 2017 to January 2020) and post-COVID (February 2020 to December 2021). The blue dotted line represents the counterfactual expected percent prevalence of tuberculin skin test positivity during the post-COVID time period based on the observed data from the pre-COVID time period. The red transparent shaded area for the observed values represents 95% confidence intervals. The blue transparent shaded area for the predicted values represents 95% confidence intervals from the counterfactual fitted models.