Fig. 4: Projected change in prevalence of major illness by scenario relative to estimated 2023 prevalence (25.7%), including and excluding population changes*.

*Change rates excluding population changes were calculated by applying projected prevalence under each scenario to the 2023 population age structure; Major illness is defined as a Cambridge Multimorbidity Score >1.5; SBP systolic blood pressure, BMI body mass index. Source data are provided as a Source data file.