Fig. 6: Influence of thermal refugia and larval supply and coral adaptation.
From: A rapidly closing window for coral persistence under global warming
Probability density distribution of reefs based on mean heat tolerance of heat-sensitive coral taxa across thermal (a) and larval supply (b) regimes (see definition in Fig. 5 legend) for both mid-century (left) and end-century (right). Heat tolerance is defined as the relative accumulated heat stress ( ± °C-week) a coral colony can withstand compared to the present-day mean response of its taxonomic group (0 °C-week). Recurrent heatwaves progressively shift the mean tolerance on a reef by selecting corals with the highest heat tolerance (within biological limits set to ± 8 °C-week) over multiple generations. Reefs in thermal refugia slow down the evolution of heat tolerance yet support a greater diversity of heat tolerance values; warm spots achieve greater heat tolerance values at the price of reduced population sizes and lower phenotypic diversity.
