Fig. 3: Regionally averaged trends in Earth System Models and observations.
The mean trends in cloud radiative effect (CRE), sea surface temperature (SST), and cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) in the North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific regions in the observations (white circle) and in the simulations with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Earth System Models. Where available, the magnitude of the trends in Nd is indicated by the size of the circles. Otherwise, where Nd is not available, squares are used. The CMIP6 models are grouped into “best” (red and purple) and “other” (black) models, as described in the text. The purple square refers to results from the CanESM5 model. 95% confidence intervals are shown for the observed trends (dark gray shading), the ranges associated with internal unforced climate variability (lighter gray shading), and the model ensemble member trends (gray, red, and purple whiskers).
