Fig. 4: Spatial distribution of changes in European summer heatwave (EuSHW) intensity due to forced changes in internal variability under global warming levels.

Multi-model mean of regression coefficients for the period 2014–2100 and for shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios between global mean temperature anomalies relative to 1985–2014 and; a the forced signal (i.e., ensemble mean) of detrended EuSHW cumulative heat; b the range (i.e., ensemble spread computed as ensemble standard deviation) of detrended EuSHW cumulative heat due to internal variability. In the non-dashed regions at least three out of the five models agree on the regression coefficient sign, and at least three out of the five models show significant changes at the 95% confidence level.