Fig. 1: Commodity-level impacts of a European wild pollinator collapse on yields, production, prices, and land use.
From: The economic, agricultural, and food security repercussions of a wild pollinator collapse in Europe
Percentage changes are reported for yield, production, producer prices, and cultivated land within (A) Europe and (B) globally, following a simulated collapse of wild pollinators in Europe. Each dot represents the CAPRI model output under the mean productivity shock scenario. The vertical lines show the range of results from three (n = 3) scenarios that reflect different levels of productivity shock, corresponding to the mean and the bounds of the 95% confidence interval. Results are model-derived and do not reflect standard deviation or standard error. The unit of analysis is the simulated output at the commodity level (e.g., cereals, vegetables) per region. All values are reported as percentage changes relative to a baseline simulation without pollinator collapse. The three scenarios were derived from biologically plausible variations in productivity losses due to pollinator decline and are treated as independent simulations. Note: The y-axis extent is specific to each indicator. Aggregate changes in yield, production, and producer prices were weighted by the base production values. Aggregate changes in land use are based on physical area. See Methods for scenario design and Supplementary Materials for source data.
