Fig. 2: Temporal evolution of annual climate regime shift (CRS) probabilities in observations and comparison between super El Niño and non-super El Niño years.
From: Super El Niño events drive climate regime shifts with enhanced risks under global warming
Global mean CRS probabilities of seasonal- and annual-mean climatic variables: a Sea surface temperature (SST), b Surface air temperature (SAT) and c surface soil moisture. Super El Niño events are marked with blue boxes and red dots for the years 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16. The color bars on the right represent the average CRS probabilities for non-super El Niño years (yellow) and during the three super El Niño events (cyan) for d SST, e SAT, and f surface soil moisture, respectively. DJF, MAM, JJA, SON, and annual represent December–February, March–May, June–August, September–November, and annual mean, respectively. Error bars indicate the 5th and 95th percentiles based on the bootstrap resampling method (see “Methods”). Note that the probabilities for the last five years have been set as missing values due to the limited data length to accurately detect regime shifts.
