Fig. 5: Ice-sheet model specific sources of uncertainty in future sea-level contribution from the Antarctic Ice Sheet through 2300. | Nature Communications

Fig. 5: Ice-sheet model specific sources of uncertainty in future sea-level contribution from the Antarctic Ice Sheet through 2300.

From: From short-term uncertainties to long-term certainties in the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Fig. 5: Ice-sheet model specific sources of uncertainty in future sea-level contribution from the Antarctic Ice Sheet through 2300.

Explained variance (i.e., fraction of total variance) in the Antarctic ice-sheet contribution to global mean sea level attributed to main effects of CMIP6 GCMs (yellow), ocean-related parameters (green) and atmosphere-related parameters (blue), based on ANOVA for the ice-sheet models Kori-ULB (left column, a, c) and PISM (right column, b, d) under emission pathways SSP1-2.6 (a, c) and SSP5-8.5 (b, d). Each colored area represents the fraction of total ensemble variance explained by a given source of uncertainty or interaction over time. The white space above the stacked areas represents variance contributions from additional two-way and higher-order interaction terms that are not shown here, as well as residual unexplained variance. Note that only one ocean-related parameter (i.e., the effective ice--ocean heat flux) is included in the PISM ensemble (see Table 2).

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