Table 1 Projected sea-level contribution from the Antarctic Ice Sheet on different timescales, depending on future emissions

From: From short-term uncertainties to long-term certainties in the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

 

Kori-ULB

PISM

 

2100

2300

2500

3000

2100

2300

2500

3000

Antarctic Ice Sheet

 SSP1-2.6

0.09 (0.03,0.17) [0.01, 0.33]

1.10 (0.19, 1.58) [0.07, 1.74]

1.65 (0.99, 2.21) [0.41, 2.31]

2.04 (1.32, 2.84) [0.85, 3.41]

0.00 (−0.02, 0.02) [−0.03, 0.04]

0.03 (−0.05, 0.16) [−0.09, 0.30]

0.10 (−0.04, 0.51) [−0.14, 1.00]

0.81 (0.27, 3.34) [0.02, 5.28]

 SSP5-8.5

0.08 (0.02, 0.21) [−0.01, 0.37]

2.67 (1.20, 4.09) [0.73, 5.09]

4.04 (2.81, 6.62) [1.44, 8.42]

6.14 (3.72, 12.84) [1.88, 17.53]

0.02 (−0.03, 0.07) [−0.05, 0.12]

2.73 (1.64, 4.40) [1.00, 5.95]

7.74 (5.00, 10.23) [3.39, 13.14]

13.57 (10.35, 18.73) [7.81, 25.85]

West Antarctic Ice Sheet

 SSP1-2.6

0.09 (0.05, 0.18) [0.03, 0.36]

1.07 (0.28, 1.54) [0.16, 1.71]

1.78 (0.93, 2.00) [0.38, 2.11]

2.18 (1.44, 2.56) [1.26, 2.74]

0.00 (−0.01, 0.01) [−0.01, 0.02]

0.03 (0.00, 0.11) [−0.01, 0.19]

0.12 (0.03, 0.39) [0, 0.84]

0.73 (0.28, 2.70) [0.16, 4.60]

 SSP5-8.5

0.10 (0.05, 0.22) [0.03, 0.44]

2.29 (1.02, 2.96) [0.69, 3.19]

3.18 (2.52, 3.60) [1.73, 3.85]

3.63 (3.38, 4.24) [2.76, 4.41]

0.00 (−0.01, 0.01) [−0.02, 0.03]

1.39 (0.90, 2.71) [0.64, 3.58]

4.47 (2.80, 5.47) [2.20, 5.86]

6.16 (5.67, 6.67) [5.27, 6.91]

East Antarctic Ice Sheet

 SSP1-2.6

−0.02 (−0.03, 0.00) [−0.04, 0.03]

−0.06 (−0.11, 0.07) [−0.14, 0.20]

−0.10 (−0.20, 0.21) [−0.25, 0.32]

−0.19 (−0.41, 0.39) [−0.49, 0.82]

−0.02 (−0.03, 0.00) [−0.03, 0.00]

−0.06 (−0.10, −0.01) [−0.13, 0.05]

−0.07 (−0.15, 0.02) [−0.19, 0.11]

0.01 (−0.19, 0.36) [−0.28, 0.67]

 SSP5-8.5

−0.03 (−0.05, −0.01) [−0.06, 0.01]

0.24 (−0.03, 0.99) [−0.15, 1.66]

0.64 (−0.10, 2.79) [−0.32, 4.50]

2.24 (0.09, 8.28) [−0.79, 12.78]

−0.02 (−0.04, 0.00) [−0.05, 0.02]

0.68 (0.20, 1.55) [−0.04, 2.33]

2.41 (1.09, 4.22) [0.38, 6.96]

6.59 (3.67, 11.17) [1.89, 18.05]

Antarctic Peninsula

 SSP1-2.6

0.00 (0.00, 0.01) [−0.01, 0.02]

0.00 (−0.01, 0.03) [−0.01, 0.03]

0.00 (−0.01, 0.03) [−0.02, 0.03]

0.01 (−0.01, 0.03) [−0.01, 0.04]

0.02 (0.01, 0.03) [0.01, 0.03]

0.05 (0.02, 0.08) [0.01, 0.11]

0.07 (0.03, 0.11) [0.01, 0.17]

0.13 (0.04, 0.21) [0.01, 0.27]

 SSP5-8.5

0.01 (0.00, 0.02) [−0.01, 0.02]

0.14 (0.11, 0.23) [0.07, 0.26]

0.19 (0.14, 0.28) [0.11, 0.29]

0.21 (0.16, 0.30) [0.12, 0.31]

0.04 (0.02, 0.05) [0.01, 0.07]

0.45 (0.31, 0.60) [0.25, 0.70]

0.67 (0.51, 0.82) [0.43, 0.85]

0.86 (0.72, 0.99) [0.66, 1.01]

  1. Ice sheet changes (in meters sea-level equivalent) on the continental scale and for different Antarctic Ice Sheet regions (West Antarctic Ice Sheet, East Antarctic Ice Sheet, and Antarctic Peninsula) under emission pathways SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 as determined by the ice-sheet models Kori-ULB and PISM. Given are the medians, (17%-83%) and [5%–95%] probability intervals, projected by 2100 and 2300 next to the committed ice loss by 2500 and 3000, compared to 2015.
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