Table 1 Area level expected annual values of coastal impacts along Europe’s OCTs and ORs by the year 2100 under all four scenarios (‘low-emissions’ (SSP1-2.6), ‘moderate-emissions’ (SSP2-4.5), ‘high-emissions’ (SSP3-7.0), and ‘very-high-emissions’ (SSP5-8.5))
Country name | SSP1-2.6-2020 | SSP1-2.6-2100 | SSP2-4.5-2100 | SSP3-7.0-2100 | SSP5-8.5-2100 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
People affected | Azores | 257 [189–536] | 1899 [582–3621] | 2318 [974–4207] | 2714 [1285–4754] | 3068 [1577–5327] |
Canary Islands | 4797 [3475–15,811] | 57,857 [22,881–103,602] | 68,990 [33,303–119,159] | 79,510 [41563–133,697] | 88,908 [49,306–148,916] | |
French Guiana | 1332 [963–3243] | 13,576 [801–30,286] | 17,643 [4607–35,968] | 21,486 [7625–41,278] | 24,918 [10,453–46,837] | |
French Southern and Atlantic Lands | 0 [0–0] | 0 [0–0] | 0 [0–0] | 0 [0–0] | 0 [0–0] | |
Madeira | 248 [179–700] | 2372 [718–4536] | 2899 [1211–5271] | 3396 [1602–5959] | 3841 [1968–6679] | |
Mayotte | 1417 [1024–1805] | 4951 [898–10,252] | 6241 [2106–12,054] | 7460 [3063–13,739] | 8549 [3960–15,502] | |
Reunion | 2588 [1940–4465] | 44,946 [2751–100,133] | 58,377 [15,324–118,900] | 71,068 [25,289–136,439] | 82,405 [34,630–154,799] | |
Saint Pierre and Miquelon | 7 [5–21] | 123 [34–240] | 152 [60–280] | 179 [82–317] | 203 [101–356] | |
St Barthelemy | 11 [8–17] | 257 [2–747] | 376 [2–913] | 489 [82–1069] | 589 [165–1232] | |
Wallis and Futuna | 80 [58–100] | 282 [113–504] | 336 [163–580] | 387 [203–650] | 433 [241–724] | |
Aruba | 286 [3–857] | 3421 [3–6501] | 3799 [1361–6987] | 4575 [2087–8071] | 5308 [2663–9084] | |
Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba | 71 [36–424] | 853 [36–1432] | 924 [466–1524] | 1070 [602–1728] | 1208 [711–1918] | |
Curacao | 187 [96–788] | 1332 [96–2133] | 1430 [796–2259] | 1632 [985–2541] | 1823 [1135–2805] | |
French Polynesia | 339 [173–514] | 755 [173–1116] | 799 [513–1173] | 890 [598–1301] | 976 [666–1420] | |
Guadeloupe | 1637 [1066–6865] | 15,825 [1066–29,244] | 17,472 [6855–31,359] | 20,852 [10,019–36,081] | 24,045 [12,526–40,495] | |
Martinique | 429 [177–2184] | 5204 [177–9559] | 5739 [2294–10,245] | 6836 [3320–11,778] | 7872 [4134–13,210] | |
New Caledonia | 717 [225–2086] | 4649 [225–8002] | 5061 [2409–8530] | 5905 [3199–9710] | 6703 [3825–10,812] | |
Saint-Martin | 58 [2–318] | 670 [2–1045] | 716 [419–1104] | 810 [508–1236] | 900 [578–1360] | |
Total | 14,460 [9620–40,733] | 158,974 [30,558–312,953] | 193,273 [72,864–360,515] | 229,260 [102,112–410,349] | 261,748 [128,639–461,477] | |
EAD | Azores | 4.2 [3.5–4.8] | 27.2 [7.8–52.5] | 33.3 [13.5–61.1] | 39.2 [18.1–69.2] | 44.4 [22.4–77.6] |
Canary Islands | 40.5 [34.4–46.5] | 352.7 [137.9–633.7] | 421.1 [201.9–729.2] | 485.7 [252.7–818.5] | 543.4 [300.2–912.0] | |
French Guiana | 19.9 [16.9–22.9] | 239.7 [13.7–535.2] | 311.6 [81.0–635.8] | 379.6 [134.4–729.7] | 440.3 [184.4–828.1] | |
French Southern and Atlantic Lands | 0.0 [0.0–0.0] | 0.0 [0.0–0.0] | 0.0 [0.0–0.1] | 0.0 [0.0–0.1] | 0.0 [0.0–0.1] | |
Madeira | 4.5 [3.9–5.2] | 32.5 [9.7–62.3] | 39.8 [16.5–72.5] | 46.6 [21.9–82.0] | 52.7 [26.9–91.9] | |
Mayotte | 6.9 [5.8–7.9] | 41.3 [0.3–95.0] | 54.4 [12.5–113.2] | 66.7 [22.2–130.3] | 77.8 [31.3–148.2] | |
Reunion | 16.9 [14.4-19.4] | 430.9 [14.4-1044.4] | 580.2 [101.6-1253.1] | 721.3 [212.3–1448.0] | 847.3 [316.2–1652.2] | |
Saint Pierre and Miquelon | 0.6 [0.5–0.7] | 7.5 [3.4–12.9] | 8.8 [4.6–14.8] | 10.1 [5.6–16.5] | 11.2 [6.5–18.3] | |
St Barthelemy | 0.2 [0.2–0.2] | 4.5 [0.2–12.4] | 6.4 [0.3–15.1] | 8.2 [1.7–17.6] | 9.9 [3.1–20.2] | |
Wallis and Futuna | 0.1 [0.1–0.1] | 0.5 [0.1–1.1] | 0.7 [0.3–1.2] | 0.8 [0.4–1.4] | 0.9 [0.4–1.6] | |
Aruba | 1.7 [0.0–4.6] | 127.4 [0.0–239.0] | 141.1 [52.9–256.6] | 169.2 [79.2–295.9] | 195.8 [100.0–332.6] | |
Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba | 1.0 [0.5–6.0] | 49.1 [0.5–85.7] | 53.6 [24.6–91.5] | 62.8 [33.2–104.4] | 71.5 [40.1–116.5] | |
Curacao | 1.0 [0.5–3.6] | 62.6 [0.5–106.9] | 68.0 [33.0–113.9] | 79.2 [43.4–129.4] | 89.7 [51.7–144.0] | |
French Polynesia | 15.2 [7.7–23.3] | 35.7 [7.7–54.0] | 37.9 [23.5–56.8] | 42.5 [27.8–63.3] | 46.9 [31.2–69.3] | |
Guadeloupe | 3.6 [2.3–12.7] | 374.5 [2.3–728.2] | 417.9 [138.1–783.9] | 507.0 [221.5–908.4] | 591.2 [287.6–1024.7] | |
Martinique | 1.5 [0.6–7.0] | 145.1 [0.6–278.6] | 161.5 [55.9–299.7] | 195.2 [87.4–346.7] | 226.9 [112.3–390.6] | |
New Caledonia | 47.8 [14.7–99.7] | 461.2 [14.7–812.2] | 504.3 [226.5–867.5] | 592.7 [309.3–991.1] | 676.2 [374.9–1106.5] | |
Saint-Martin | 0.2 [0.0–1.0] | 21.1 [0.0–34.5] | 22.8 [12.1–36.7] | 26.1 [15.3–41.4] | 29.3 [17.8–45.8] | |
Total | 165.8 [106.0–265.7] | 2413.6 [213.8–4788.8] | 2863.5 [998.7–5402.7] | 3433.0 [1486.2–6193.8] | 3955.5 [1907.0–6980.0] |
