Fig. 3: Evolution of fossil energy demand and low-carbon energy shares over time.
From: From net-zero to zero-fossil in transforming the EU energy system
Bold lines represent FosFree-NZ scenario (solid line) and LeastCost-NZ (dashed line). Thin lines represent all other net-zero scenarios of this study (see Supplementary Table 1 and Methods). The top panels show fossil energy demand: a EU demand for primary energy coal relative to 2020 levels. b As in a but for primary energy natural gas. c As in a but for primary energy oil. The bottom panels show clean energy shares: d Share of variable renewable energy (VRE), that is, wind and solar power in total power generation. e Share of electricity in final energy (FE) in buildings (red), industry without feedstocks (gray) and domestic transport (blue). f Share of non-fossil combustible fuels in final energy (FE) distinguished between biomass-based fuels (green) and hydrogen-based fuels, i.e., hydrogen and e-fuels (cyan). Fossil energy demand is drastically reduced in the net-zero scenarios as the power sector transitions to renewable energy, large parts of energy end-uses are electrified and residual fuel demands are supplied by carbon-neutral fuels based on biomass and green hydrogen.
