Fig. 4: Multi-ensemble mean June, July, August (JJA) temperature variability defined as the standard deviation over each region at each warming level for both the full ensemble (black) and the constrained ensemble (color). | Nature Communications

Fig. 4: Multi-ensemble mean June, July, August (JJA) temperature variability defined as the standard deviation over each region at each warming level for both the full ensemble (black) and the constrained ensemble (color).

From: Temperature variability projections remain uncertain after constraining them to best performing Large Ensembles of individual Climate Models

Fig. 4

Results are shown relative to the variability at 1 degree of warming in the full ensemble. Errorbars show the full model spread (i.e. the end members of each ensemble), with the fatter errorbars highlighting the 25th and 75th percentiles. The number of models that accurately represent observed variability are shown in the titles. Note we choose to exclude the polar oceans from these plots due to issues around the ice edges.

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