Fig. 7: Comparison of the full and constrained ensembles at 1 °C with observations. | Nature Communications

Fig. 7: Comparison of the full and constrained ensembles at 1 °C with observations.

From: Temperature variability projections remain uncertain after constraining them to best performing Large Ensembles of individual Climate Models

Fig. 7

Observed estimate of temperature variability defined as the standard deviation across the observed time series pooling all 3 months of data (a: December, January, February; DJF, d: June, July, August; JJA). Full ensemble estimate of temperature variability defined as the standard deviation at 1 °C of warming minus the observed estimate (b: DJF, e: JJA). Constrained ensemble estimate minus the observed estimate (c: DJF, f: JJA). Note the observations have been detrended using a second order polynomial fit. Observations are taken from ERSSTv5 over the ocean and GISS over the land as described in the “Methods”. Note in a and b two colorbars exist one over the ocean (purple) and one over the land (orange). Differences over the ocean and land also have different colourscales shown by the colorbars on the right hand side of the plot.

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