Fig. 2: The dependence of time to variant detection on sequencing rate and turnaround time for a single country.
a Relationship between sequencing rate and the expected number of days until the variant will have been detected with 95% confidence. The small black tick marks on the x-axes in this plot and in b and c show country-specific SARS-CoV-2 sequencing rates for 2022. Vertical dotted lines correspond to the median SARS-CoV-2 sequencing rates for high-income (HIC) and low-income (LIC) countries in 2022. In all panels, lines are colored by values of variant Re, with a distinct scenario of variant emergence for each value of variant Re; sequencing turnaround time was assumed to be 14 days. Vertical grey lines indicate 2 S/M/wk and 30 S/M/wk, respectively. b Relationship between sequencing rate and the reduction in the expected number of days until the variant will have been detected with 95% confidence that results from increasing the sequencing rate on the x-axis by 1 S/M/wk. c Relationship between sequencing rate and the expected number of variant infections by the day the variant will have been detected with 95% confidence. d Relationship between a reduction in turnaround time (in days) and the fold increase in sequencing rate that would be required to effect the same reduction in time to detection if turnaround time was kept constant.
