Fig. 4: Temporal changes in βSOT simulated by state-of-the-art ecosystem models.
From: Accelerated land surface greening caused by earlier permafrost thawing
A Spatial distribution of the trend of βSOT estimated from an ensemble of state-of-the-art models (Supplementary Table 4), with inset box plots showing trends across permafrost types. B Standard deviation (SD) of βSOT among the models, with inset box plots showing SDs across permafrost types. Box plots show medians (center lines), interquartile ranges (boxes), and whiskers extending to 1.5×IQR; red points indicate means. The numbers in brackets represent the number of pixels across permafrost types. C Comparison of observed trends in βSOT (kNDVI, SIF, GPP) with modelled trends from the ensemble of models, focusing on the proportions of significant positive (P*), significant negative (N*), and non-significant (NS) trends. D Spatial consistency of trends in βSOT using the majority-vote result from kNDVI, SIF and GPP as the observational baseline (Methods).++ and – – indicate agreement on positive and negative trends, respectively. Trends were estimated using the Theil–Sen slope, and their significance was assessed with the two-sided Mann–Kendall test (p < 0.05). Source data are provided as a Source Data file.
