Fig. 4: Comparison of the fit of two host-pathogen models with and without selection mosaics to our observed morphotype frequency data.

Left: model without a selection mosaic. Right: the best-fit model with selection mosaics for both variation in infectiousness C and the fecundity-resistance tradeoff parameter s. The black line represents the average mean frequency of the multi-capsid morphotype calculated for each percent Douglas-fir grid over the 2000 stochastic realizations from our model-fitting procedure, while the blue shaded ribbon with dashed black lines represents the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the mean frequency for the 2000 realizations. Black points and error bars are the mean ± SEM of the morphotype frequency data from the 128 sampled locations from Fig. 2 binned into 10 groups by percent Douglas-fir. Relative point sizes indicate relative sample sizes. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.