Fig. 5: Effects of variation in forest composition on the host-pathogen dynamics of the best-fitting eco-evolutionary model.

A Example hexagonal lattice in our model with Douglas-fir (light green) and grand fir cells (dark green), with percent Douglas-fir increasing from left to right. B Simulated population cycles for years 150 to 190 for the host population (green), the multi-capsid morphotype (MNPV, blue), and single-capsid morphotype (SNPV, orange). C Magnitude of the average infectiousness for each morphotype over time, showing cyclic behavior that is partly driven by fluctuating selection on the pathogen. Horizontal bars on the left side of each time series show our field-experimental estimates of average infectiousness from either Douglas-fir (solid) or grand fir (dashed) from Fig. 3A. D Relative frequency of each morphotype, showing how the population cycles affect morphotype competition. E Fraction infected over time. Brighter colors identify years for which the fraction infected is ≥0.3, which are included in the calculation of the fraction infected with each morphotype. F Box-and-whisker plots show the distribution of the relative frequency of each morphotype for years in which the fraction infected was ≥0.3 for years 50 to 1000; the central line denotes the median frequency, with the box edges representing the 25th and 75th percentiles (Interquartile range or IQR), and whiskers extend to the most extreme data points within 1.5 × IQR. The number of years included is shown above each box-and-whisker plot. The output of graphs B-F is based on the same simulation. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.