Table 3 Crude HR and 95% CI for HIV seroconversion in pooled data, by age and sex, adjusted for study

From: Individual and population-level risk factors for new HIV infections among adults in Eastern and Southern Africa

Risk Factor

Young Men

Older Men

Young Women

Older Women

Incidence rate/1000 person years

6.7 (6.2-7.3)

10.7 (10.0-11.4)

23.3 (22.3-24.3)

11.9 (11.3-12.4)

Education

No formal education

1.66 (0.45-6.09)

1.39 (0.76-2.56)

1.32 (0.53-3.29)

1.09 (0.75-1.60)

Primary

1

1

1

1

Secondary

0.71 (0.48-1.03)

1.20 (0.96-1.51)

0.74 (0.59-0.92)

1.29 (1.05-1.59)

Tertiary

1.21 (0.40-3.61)

0.96 (0.61-1.48)

0.36 (0.10-1.34)

0.62 (0.37-1.02)

Unknown

0.75 (0.58-0.96)

1.45 (1.20-1.74)

0.98 (0.83-1.15)

0.91 (0.73-1.12)

Urban or rural Resident

Rural

1

1

1

1

Urban

1.79 (1.13-2.83)

1.29 (0.82-2.01)

1.18 (0.88-1.57)

1.35 (0.99-1.85)

Peri-urban

1.69 (1.36-2.10)

2.80 (2.24-3.51)

1.25 (1.11-1.40)

1.29 (1.10-1.51)

<1 km from road

1.03 (0.29-3.58)

0.58 (0.33-1.01)

1.28 (0.73-2.27)

1.29 (0.83-2.02)

>1 km from road

1.02 (0.32-3.21)

0.35 (0.19-0.65)

0.39 (0.16-0.94)

0.39 (0.21-0.75)

agricultural estate

1.52 (0.22-10.52)

1.90 (1.29-2.80)

2.53 (1.17-5.49)

1.91 (1.19-3.04)

commercial center

3.08 (0.81-11.71)

1.95 (1.31-2.92)

3.47 (1.85-6.52)

3.16 (2.11-4.71)

roadside trading

2.79 (1.01-7.73)

1.04 (0.60-1.79)

2.61 (1.46-4.67)

1.76 (1.18-2.62)

subsistence farming

1.94 (0.49-7.72)

0.98 (0.56-1.73)

1.55 (0.73-3.29)

1.23 (0.77-1.96)

Moved house in the last year

No

1

1

1

1

Yes

1.68 (1.11-2.55)

1.30 (0.94-1.81)

1.29 (1.04-1.60)

1.84 (1.47-2.31)

Calendar year (grouped)

2005-08

1

1

1

1

2009-12

0.99 (0.77-1.26)

0.81 (0.66-0.99)

0.90 (0.78-1.03)

0.86 (0.70-1.05)

2013-16

0.67 (0.50-0.89)

0.64 (0.51-0.80)

0.70 (0.61-0.81)

0.60 (0.46-0.79)

2005-08 uMkhanyakude

   

0.80 (0.64-0.99)

2009-12 uMkhanyakude

   

0.93 (0.75-1.16)

Partner acquisition rate among peers1

 

1.01 (1.00-1.03)

1.03 (1.01-1.04)

0.97 (0.94-1.01)

1.04 (1.00-1.09)

Partner loss rate among peers1

 

1.01 (0.99-1.04)

1.00 (0.99-1.00)

1.04 (0.96-1.12)

1.03 (0.96-1.10)

Partner acquisition rate in potential opposite sex partners1

 

0.90 (0.74-1.09)

1.08 (1.03-1.14)

1.00 (0.98-1.02)

1.03 (1.01-1.04)

Partner loss rate in potential opposite sex partners1

 

0.82 (0.59-1.14)

1.15 (1.01-1.30)

1.01 (0.99-1.03)

1.00 (0.99-1.01)

Current marital status

Never married

0.32 (0.20-0.51)

2.67 (2.26-3.15)

1.05 (0.81-1.36)

2.51 (1.96-3.22)

Currently married

1

1

1

1

Formerly married

1.60 (0.55-4.68)

1.47 (1.12-1.94)

4.15 (2.61-6.60)

2.13 (1.79-2.53)

Ever married no current info

**

1.45 (0.78-2.68)

1.11 (0.56-2.18)

0.86 (0.64-1.15)

Not known

0.45 (0.25-0.81)

3.05 (1.87-4.97)

0.96 (0.69-1.34)

2.21 (1.51-3.22)

Number of partners in the last year

No partners

0.62 (0.43-0.91)

0.75 (0.39-1.46)

0.51 (0.43-0.60)

0.85 (0.60-1.22)

1 partner

1

1

1

1

2 partners

1.71 (0.94-3.10)

1.15 (0.75-1.75)

2.36 (1.40-3.97)

3.15 (1.69-5.88)

3+ partners

1.82 (0.77-4.27)

1.55 (0.94-2.56)

**

**

No data

0.96 (0.68-1.34)

0.94 (0.74-1.21)

0.72 (0.63-0.83)

0.93 (0.80-1.08)

Had more than one partner in the last year

No

1

1

1

1

Yes

2.32 (1.46-3.70)

1.32 (0.94-1.86)

3.03 (1.83-5.02)

3.15 (1.77-5.60)

No data

1.27 (1.00-1.61)

0.98 (0.78-1.23)

0.97 (0.85-1.10)

0.94 (0.81-1.09)

Had a casual partner in the last year

No

1

1

1

1

Yes

1.42 (0.91-2.22)

1.38 (0.91-2.11)

1.57 (1.22-2.02)

1.27 (0.86-1.88)

No data

1.25 (0.99-1.59)

0.84 (0.66-1.07)

0.99 (0.87-1.13)

0.93 (0.79-1.09)

Had a regular partner in the last year

No

1

1

1

1

Yes

1.55 (1.09-2.22)

3.17 (2.18-4.59)

1.75 (1.48-2.08)

2.34 (1.82-3.01)

No data

1.35 (1.05-1.74)

1.25 (0.93-1.69)

1.20 (1.02-1.41)

1.30 (1.06-1.59)

Age difference(s) with partners in the last year

Partner within 5 years of age

1

1

1

1

Partner 5+ years older/younger

1.29 (0.44-3.79)

0.85 (0.55-1.31)

1.08 (0.84-1.40)

0.81 (0.58-1.11)

Partner 10+ years older/younger

**

0.65 (0.36-1.16)

1.39 (0.90-2.14)

0.65 (0.41-1.01)

Age not known/not given

1.01 (0.58-1.79)

1.07 (0.54-2.11)

1.11 (0.83-1.47)

1.07 (0.75-1.52)

No partner in ref period

0.57 (0.39-0.83)

0.63 (0.31-1.27)

0.52 (0.43-0.63)

0.69 (0.46-1.03)

No data

0.89 (0.64-1.24)

0.73 (0.54-0.98)

0.76 (0.64-0.89)

0.78 (0.63-0.96)

Prevalence of untreated infection in potential opposite sex partners

 

1.07 (1.05-1.09)

1.06 (1.05-1.07)

1.02 (1.01-1.03)

1.05 (1.03-1.06)

Had a new partner in the last year

No

1

1

1

1

Yes

1.49 (1.03-2.15)

1.48 (1.00-2.19)

1.80 (1.44-2.24)

2.52 (1.75-3.64)

No data

1.29 (1.00-1.65)

0.79 (0.63-1.00)

1.06 (0.92-1.21)

0.94 (0.80-1.10)

Coital frequency with all partners in the last year

Zero

**

**

**

0.58 (0.13-2.64)

<1/week

1

1

1

1

1+ times/week

**

1.65 (0.28-9.63)

1.10 (0.15-7.86)

0.74 (0.29-1.92)

No data

**

1.77 (0.34-9.29)

1.27 (0.22-7.32)

0.81 (0.35-1.85)

Is circumcised

Not

1

1

  

Circumcised

0.36 (0.20-0.66)

0.88 (0.61-1.27)

  

no information

1.36 (1.04-1.77)

1.65 (1.23-2.22)

  

Condoms used consistently with all partners in the last year

No partners

0.57 (0.40-0.83)

0.93 (0.59-1.47)

0.56 (0.46-0.68)

1.25 (0.93-1.69)

No condom use

1

1

1

1

Some condom use (sometimes or some partners

0.86 (0.54-1.36)

1.91 (1.35-2.69)

1.11 (0.90-1.37)

2.56 (1.99-3.28)

Complete condom use (all partners=always)

0.83 (0.23-2.92)

1.05 (0.31-3.55)

1.19 (0.49-2.92)

0.98 (0.24-4.08)

Not sure- 6+ptnrs or missing data

1.95 (0.57-6.65)

0.56 (0.22-1.43)

**

1.13 (0.54-2.38)

No data

0.82 (0.58-1.14)

0.92 (0.71-1.18)

0.74 (0.62-0.89)

1.18 (0.99-1.41)

Ended a partnership in the last year

No

1

1

1

1

Yes

1.30 (0.76-2.21)

1.16 (0.75-1.78)

1.64 (1.15-2.35)

1.44 (0.91-2.26)

No data

1.20 (0.95-1.52)

0.75 (0.61-0.92)

0.97 (0.85-1.10)

0.94 (0.81-1.10)

  1. Bold font indicates estimates where the confidence intervals do not include 1.
  2. ** CI not estimated due to zero failures in some imputations.
  3. 1Estimated for Karonga, Kisesa and Rakai only.
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