Fig. 3: Evidence that phenological responses to year-detrended temperature (temperatured) propagated to population growth in most species.
From: Changes in phenology mediate vertebrate population responses to temperature globally
Across studies, phenology was earlier in years warmer than average (a), the association between phenology and population growth rate conditional on temperature and population size was not significant (b), the direct effect of temperatured on population growth rate (mediated by all other traits but phenology) did not differ from 0 (c) and the proportion of studies with non-negative phenology-mediated effect of temperatured on population growth rate (CZG) was significantly higher than expected by chance (d). Grey thin lines in a–c show estimated slopes for each single study and black thick lines show the overall across-study effects. Solid thick lines demonstrate significant effects and dashed lines non-significant ones. The grey shaded bands around the black thick lines are the 95% confidence intervals. In d, studies with non-negative CZG are shown in blue and those with negative CZG—in mauve. The shape of the sign in d reflects the taxon.
