Fig. 2: The global surface temperature rise in the scenario where no contrail avoidance action is taken. | Nature Communications

Fig. 2: The global surface temperature rise in the scenario where no contrail avoidance action is taken.

From: The climate opportunities and risks of contrail avoidance

Fig. 2: The global surface temperature rise in the scenario where no contrail avoidance action is taken.

The distribution is presented from 2025 to 2055 (left) and for 2050 (right). The mean response (solid line) and 95% confidence intervals (shaded area) for contrails are depicted as an addition to the mean response for aviation CO2 emissions. The aviation growth projection (AGP) AGP 0.29 is assumed, i.e. exponential growth in flown distance beyond 2045 and a saturation in future contrail forcing effects.

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