Fig. 3: The global surface temperature rise due to contrails, for contrail avoidance scenarios with different levels of effectiveness.

The distribution is presented from 2025 to 2055 (left) and for 2050 (right). The mean response (solid line) and 95% confidence intervals (shaded area) are depicted for contrail avoidance scenarios with levels of contrail avoidance effectiveness of 0% (here equivalent to no contrail avoidance action, i.e. “No action”), 25%, 50%, 75% and 100%. All scenarios have a 2035 start date, and progress from no adoption to fleet wide adoption over the course of 10 years. The aviation growth projection (AGP) AGP 0.29 is assumed, i.e. exponential growth in flown distance beyond 2045 and a saturation in future contrail forcing effects.