Fig. 4: The global surface temperature rise due to contrails, for contrail avoidance scenarios with different start dates.
From: The climate opportunities and risks of contrail avoidance
The distribution is presented from 2025 to 2055 (left) and for 2050 (right). The mean response (solid line) and 95% confidence intervals (shaded area) are depicted for contrail avoidance scenarios with start times of 2035, 2040, and 2045. All scenarios have 100% contrail avoidance effectiveness, and progress from no adoption to fleet wide adoption over the course of 10 years. The scenario where no contrail avoidance action is taken (No action) is also presented. The aviation growth projection (AGP) AGP 0.29 is assumed, i.e. exponential growth in flown distance beyond 2045 and a saturation in future contrail forcing effects.
