Fig. 5: The global surface temperature rise due to contrails, for contrail avoidance scenarios with and without the modification of fleet-wide fuel composition.
From: The climate opportunities and risks of contrail avoidance
The distribution is presented from 2025 to 2055 (left) and for 2050 (right). The mean response with (dashed line) and without (solid line) modified fuel composition and 95% confidence intervals (shaded area) are depicted. All scenarios have a 2035 start date, have a 100% contrail avoidance effectiveness, and progress from no adoption to fleet-wide adoption over the course of 10 years. The scenario where no contrail avoidance action is taken (No action) is also presented. The aviation growth projection AGP (AGP) 0.29 is assumed, i.e. exponential growth in flown distance beyond 2045 and a saturation in future contrail forcing effects.
