Fig. 6: Distribution of the decrease in global surface temperature rise due to contrail avoidance and the temperature increase due to additional fuel burn in 2050 and 2100.

The distributions are shown for: 2050, (A) in a scatter plot and (B) in a box plot, and 2100, also (C) in a scatter plot and (D) in a box plot. Contrail avoidance is assumed 25% effective, the scenario start date is assumed to be 2035 and three levels of fuel burn penalty are presented: 0.35%, 5% and 10% of fleet averaged fuel burn at full adoption. Lines labelled “1:1” are shown in the scatter plots, which represent the level where the reduction in contrail warming due to contrail avoidance is equal to the CO₂ warming incurred due to the fuel burn penalty. The error bars, shaded areas, and central vertical line in the box plots indicate the 95% confidence intervals, the interquartile range, and the mean, respectively. The aviation growth projection (AGP) AGP 0.14 is assumed, i.e. no growth in flown distance beyond 2045 and a saturation in future contrail forcing effects.