Abstract
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) strongly influences Indo-Pacific climate extremes, yet its drivers remain incompletely understood. Using satellite observations, reanalysis, and climate model experiments, we identify Middle East dust emissions as a major external driver of IOD variability. Observational evidence shows that dust over the 1980-2020 period account for ~36% of interannual IOD variance, surpassing El Niño-Southern Oscillation as the main driver during boreal autumn. Climate simulations confirm that reduced dust enhances warming in the western Indian Ocean and inducing easterly winds that shoal the eastern thermocline. These anomalies trigger Bjerknes and wind–evaporation–sea surface temperature feedbacks, amplifying a positive IOD pattern, and vice versa. Our findings reveal a powerful dust–IOD teleconnection, highlighting the need to incorporate aerosol forcing into seasonal forecasts and climate projections.
Data availability
All datasets about the study’s key findings are fully described in the main text and the Methods section. The data generated in the study have been deposited in the https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15683119.
Code availability
The codes are available in the Zenodo files (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15683119).
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Acknowledgements
This study is funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC, Grants No.42425503, J.L.) and the Peking University – BHP Carbon and Climate Wei-Ming PhD Scholars Program (Program Number: WM202401, G.L.).
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G.L. and J.L. conceived the study. G.L., X.W., and Y.D. gathered the data. G.L., S.X., X.W., and Y.D. developed the methodology. S.X., J.E.H., and J.L. were responsible for the supervision. G.L., J.L. wrote the original draft. All authors reviewed and edited the article.
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Liu, G., Xie, SP., Hansen, J.E. et al. Middle East dust as an important external driver of the Indian Ocean Dipole. Nat Commun (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-68842-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-68842-1
