Fig. 3: Multi-centennial temperature and AMOC variability in observations, proxies, and model simulations.

a 60-year low-pass filtered temperature anomalies relative to 1900–1997 (common period) from IPSL-EHS members (grey), Temp12k25 reconstruction (red), Hadley centre (HadCRUT5; pink), the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperatures (BEST; orange), and the Dynamically Consistent ENsemble of Temperature (DCENT; darkred) over Torneträsk in Sweden. b Same as (a) but over Northern Europe (10°W–50°E, 55°N–70°N). c same as (a) but for the IPSL-EHS AMOC at 50°N, with the AMOC reconstruction based on EN4 hydrographic data in the subpolar gyre56 (red). The black line represents the forced response (the ensemble mean of all IPSL-EHS members). The model member in blue is the one that aligns more closely with the observation-based estimates (Supplementary Fig. 14). The dashed line (darkblue) stands for the internal variability from the blue member (see Methods).