Table 1 Rates of temperature change (in °C dec⁻¹ and estimated by the slope of a linear regression) over the period 2000–2035 at Lapland (Norway), Torneträsk (Sweden), Northern Europe (10°W–50°E, 55°N–70°N), Europe (10°W–50°E, 35°N–70°N), and the global scale over land

From: Multi-centennial internal variability in the North Atlantic could drive additional warming over Europe

Rate of temperature change over 2000–2035 (°C/decade)

Lapland

Torneträsk

Northern Europe

Europe

Global

Forced-CMIP6

0.38*

0.36*

0.37*

0.35*

0.33*

Amplitude ratio computed over 1930–2023

0.70

0.52

0.32

0.25

0.36

Observationally-constrained internal variability

0.14

0.10

0.11

0.07

0.05

Increased warming due to internal variability

37%

28%

30%

20%

15%

  1. Forced-CMIP6 (CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean) represents the externally forced signal estimated from the CMIP6 ensemble mean. Observationally-constrained internal variability is the difference between Member 8 internal variability rate over 2000–2035 signal constrained by the “amplitude ratio”, estimated as the ratio between the standard deviation of the observed internal signal (Berkeley Earth minus CMIP6 ensemble mean) variability and the Member 8 internal variability both computed over the 1930–2023 period (see Methods). This amplitude ratio is an estimate of the overestimation of the IPSL internal variability compared to observations. The percentage of the increase of the forced warming by the internal variability is calculated as the ratio between the rates of warming over 2000–2035 of the constrained internal variability divided by the Forced-CMIP6 signal and then multiplied by 100. Slopes significantly different from zero (p < 0.01) are indicated with an asterisk (*).
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