Fig. 4: Observed and simulated trends in thermodynamic factors during the pre-monsoon season. | Nature Communications

Fig. 4: Observed and simulated trends in thermodynamic factors during the pre-monsoon season.

From: Global warming drives an increase in pre-monsoon tropical cyclone activity over the North Indian Ocean

Fig. 4: Observed and simulated trends in thermodynamic factors during the pre-monsoon season.

Trends in (a) potential intensity (PI), and (b) relative humidity (RH) during the pre-monsoon season (April–June). The analysis domain is 10–20°N, 65–90°E. Observed results (OBS) obtained from the ECMWF and ERA-5 datasets from 1981 to 2023, results from the multimodel mean of CMIP6 historical (HIS) simulations, results from the multimodel mean of simulations forced by greenhouse gas (GHG) only, natural forcing (NAT) only and anthropogenic aerosol (AER) only based on the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project from 1981 to 2014, and results from the multimodel mean of the future high-emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 585; SSP585) simulations from 2015 to 2099 are shown. Linear trends (bars) are significant at the 95% confidence level based on the Student’s t-test. The error bars indicate the 95% confidence intervals.

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