Fig. 4: Probability of emergence of theoretical SARS coronaviruses under conditions of equal natural and vaccine cross-immunity. | Nature Communications

Fig. 4: Probability of emergence of theoretical SARS coronaviruses under conditions of equal natural and vaccine cross-immunity.

From: Post-pandemic changes in population immunity have reduced the likelihood of emergence of zoonotic coronaviruses

Fig. 4: Probability of emergence of theoretical SARS coronaviruses under conditions of equal natural and vaccine cross-immunity.

Heatmaps show point estimates of the change probability of emergence for 25 theoretical SARS coronaviruses with different \({R}_{0}\) values (panel rows) and levels of natural and vaccine-derived cross-immunity (panel columns) in a population with co-circulating SARS-CoV-2, estimated from 25,000 model iterations for each unique combination of virus and vaccine program parameters. In these scenarios, protection against SARS-CoV-X infection conferred from recovering from natural infection with SARS-CoV-2 (“natural cross-immunity”) and vaccination (“vaccine cross-immunity”) are identical. Inset white text shows the background probability of emergence for each virus.

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