Abstract
The delivery of China’s climate policy has substantial global implications, yet persistent gaps between policy targets and implementation raise concerns about policy credibility. This study presents a structured credibility assessment of 292 targets across 58 national climate and energy policies, including China’s updated 2035 NDC. We apply a morphological scenario framework to examine interactions between policy uncertainty and socio-economic and technological drivers, embedding these scenarios in an integrated assessment model under two global contexts: one aligned with current NDCs and one consistent with global net-zero ambition. We find that timely or accelerated delivery of China’s net-zero target could partially offset insufficient ambition elsewhere by mid-century. Full delivery by 2050 reduces global CO₂ emissions to 13 Gt, compared with 23 Gt without such policies. Policy delivery uncertainty alone could imply up to ~500 GtCO₂ difference in cumulative emissions by 2100 (~0.17 °C warming).
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Data availability
The processed data underlying the figures and analyses presented in this study, including source data for the policy credibility assessment, net-zero assumptions, and figure generation, have been deposited in the Zenodo repository (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18378439). The TIAM-UCL model outputs and files with the assumptions needed to run the model are available in the same repository.
Code availability
The underlying code (mathematical equations) for the model is available via GitHub (https://github.com/etsap-TIMES/TIMES_model).
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Acknowledgements
S.P. and J.P. involvement was supported by the Horizon Europe R&I programme project DIAMOND (grant no. 101081179).
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D.Z., S.P., J.P., and J.W. designed the study, with contributions from D.W. D.Z. and J.P. conducted the TIAM-UCL modelling, with contributions from D.W. D.Z. led the presentation of the modelling results. D.Z. and S.P. led on the drafting of the manuscript, with contributions from all other authors. D.Z. led the compilation of the supplementary information.
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Zhang, D., Pye, S., Watson, J. et al. Global implications of uncertainty in China’s climate policy delivery. Nat Commun (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-70400-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-70400-8
