Fig. 2: Trends in the synthetic distance of tropical cyclone (TC) heavy rainfall (≥30 mm per 3 h) and nearshore sea-surface temperature (SST) in the Northern Hemisphere basins during the TC peak season.

a–c Comparison of trends in the synthetic distance of TC heavy rainfall from the coastline before and after removing the SST trend signal (shown in Supplementary Fig. 3a–c) for basins: western North Atlantic (August–October; a), the Bay of Bengal (May, October, and November; b), and western North Pacific (July–October; c), based on the Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation and Extended Reconstructed SST (ERSST; Methods) datasets (1980–2023). Single and double asterisks indicate significance at the 90% and 95% confidence levels, respectively (Mann–Kendall test; Methods); error bars denote 95% confidence intervals. Trends of the nearshore SST in basins: western North Atlantic (d), the Bay of Bengal (e), and western North Pacific (f), based on the ERSST dataset (1980–2023) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations (1980–2014). Simulations are forced by historical (HIST), greenhouse gas (GHG), anthropogenic aerosol (AER), and natural (NAT) forcings, respectively (Methods). Red horizontal line shows the trend from the ERSST dataset. Boxes show interquartile ranges (25th–75th percentiles), center lines indicate medians, and whiskers extend to the 5th and 95th percentiles.