Fig. 1: Observed and predicted weekly incidence in domestic pig farms and wild boar patches across six counties in southeastern Romania from June to December 2018.
From: A multi-host mechanistic model of African swine fever emergence and control in Romania
Shaded ribbons represent 95% prediction intervals of the best-fitting model (determined across 500 simulations of 100 conserved particles), points indicate observed weekly case counts, and thin lines show trajectories from the ten top-ranked stochastic replicates selected using residual mean squared error. The top row shows the aggregate model fit across all counties by epidemiological unit, while the lower panels show incidence further stratified by county.
