Table 1 Posterior median and 95% credible intervals of numerically estimated parameters obtained from best-fitting 100 retained simulations (out of 2600 total simulations)

Weekly transmission rate

β_ij^hi

Farm-to-farm (high transmission)

0.312 (0.023–0.921)

Uniform (0, 1)

β_ij^med

Farm-to-farm (medium transmission)

0.362 (0.026–0.917)

Uniform (0, 1)

β_ij^low

Farm-to-farm (low transmission)

0.259 (0.018–0.834)

Uniform (0, 1)

Β_pj

Patch-to-farm

3.186 (0.154–5.677)

Uniform (0, 6)

β_xj

External-to-farm

0.004 (0–0.01)

Uniform (0, 0.01)

β_iq

Farm-to-patch

1.984 (0.08–5.133)

Uniform (0, 6)

β_pq

Patch-to-patch (overall)

0.85 (0.018–6.876)

 Uniform (0, 8)

Relative susceptibility

ϕ_j

Of villages during winter slaughter

0.344 (0.024–0.962)

Uniform (0, 1)

ϕ_q

Of patches below forest coverage threshold

0.029 (0.002–0.668)

Uniform (0, 1)

Relative infectivity

ψ_i

Of villages during winter slaughter

0.51 (0.036–0.893)

Uniform (0, 1)

ψ_p

Of patches below forest coverage threshold

0.298 (0.008–0.863)

Uniform (0, 1)