Abstract
Truck-hailing is an emerging business model that could potentially transform the road freight sector. As a new form of horizontal collaborative transport, it offers great potential to improve operational efficiency—an important yet underrepresented demand-side strategy in current transport decarbonization research. Drawing on a proprietary national truck-hailing dataset (N = 51,021) and an enhanced vehicle fleet model that incorporates operational factors, here we assess the potential carbon emission impacts of truck-hailing and operational efficiency improvements in China under multiple scenarios. Under medium projections, enhancements in load factor and reductions in empty running could cut China’s road freight emissions by 886-2203 Mt (9%-24%) in the near term (2020–2035) and 2504-3327 Mt (23%-31%) in the long term (2035–2060), compared to a business-as-usual pathway. However, capacity constraints of zero-emission vehicles may reduce these benefits, resulting in roughly 3% higher emissions in the near term and nearly 10% in the long term.
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Data availability
The raw truck-hailing data are protected and are not available due to commercial confidentiality. Other data that support the findings of this work are listed in the Methods section. Aggregated data used to generate the figures are available at https://zenodo.org/records/18439095.
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Acknowledgements
This research was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2024YFE0115800), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 52232011), the introduced innovative R&D team of Guangdong under Grant 2023ZT10L145, and the Sichuan Science and Technology Program “PIANJI” Project (No. 2025HJPJ0011). We also gratefully acknowledge support from KAPSARC, the Tsinghua University-Toyota Research Center, and the Carbon Neutrality and Energy System (CNEST) program initiated by Tsinghua University.
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X.X., T.P. and X.O designed the research. X.X., T.P., Z.X., M.G., D.L. and X.L. acquired and prepared the data. X.X., T.P. and Z.X. performed the analysis. X.X. and T.P. wrote the paper. S.O. and Z.L. supervised the research, and reviewed and revised the paper.
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Xu, X., Ou, S., Peng, T. et al. The potential role of truck-hailing and operational efficiency improvement in China’s road freight decarbonization. Nat Commun (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-71160-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-71160-1


