Abstract
While research has largely focused on boreal fires, here we show a significant increase in spring fire activity across continental tropical Asia between 2001 and 2020, characterized by two prominent hotspots. We further show that this upward trend in fire activity is driven by distinct regional mechanisms. In the Indian Peninsula hotspot, anthropogenic agricultural burning across expanding cropland has amplified fire activity. In contrast, the Indo-China Peninsula hotspot is dominated by wildfires linked to reduced precipitation driven by internal climate variability. Large ensemble climate simulations identify Pacific decadal variability as a key driver of this regional drying, beyond what can be explained by anthropogenic forcing alone. These findings highlight an overlooked increase in tropical fire activity and reveal distinct regional drivers shaping the overall upward fire trend across continental tropical Asia. Policymakers should account for these factors to design effective climate mitigation and fire risk management strategies for the region.
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We thank the editor and anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments. We also acknowledge the developers and providers of the public datasets used in this study.
Funding
This study was supported jointly by the Yunnan Provincial Science and Technology Department (Grant number: 202505AB350001, 202403AP140009, 202505AV340011, and 202501BC070012), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant number: 42405042), and Yunnan Caiyun Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Grant number: C615300504050).
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Cai, Q., Chen, W., Yu, Y. et al. The Silent Expansion of Fire Activity in Continental Tropical Asia shaped by natural and anthropogenic forces. Nat Commun (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-73201-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-73201-1
