Abstract
Mollisol croplands are important for global food production and soil carbon storage, yet it remains unclear how climate warming affects transitions between soil organic carbon loss and gain. Here we show that surface soil organic carbon across global Mollisol croplands declined by 5.59% from 1990 to 2020, although the rate of loss slowed over time. Using 5,535 soil samples and satellite observations, we identified a nonlinear relationship between soil carbon change and the rate of warming, with a threshold at 0.0309 °C/yr above which net soil carbon change shifted from loss toward gain. This threshold increased toward lower latitudes, indicating that warmer regions require stronger warming to reach a similar transition. If recent climate-soil relationships persist, about 65% of Mollisol cropland may exceed this threshold by 2050 under a moderate emissions scenario. These results highlight the importance of nonlinear threshold responses in predicting soil carbon dynamics under climate change.
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The authors thank all colleagues and collaborators who contributed to sample collection, data processing, and manuscript revision.
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This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (grant no. 2021YFD1500100, H.J.L.), the Young Scientists Innovation Fund of the State Key Laboratory of Black Soils Conservation and Utilization (grant no. 2023HTDGZ-QN-01, H.J.L.), and the Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (grant no. GZB20240737, X.T.M.).
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Meng, X., Bao, Y., Ustin, S.L. et al. Nonlinear temperature change responses shape soil organic carbon loss-gain transitions in global Mollisol croplands. Nat Commun (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-73759-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-73759-w
