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Ecological and stochastic determinants of the growth and persistence of the oral pathogen Porphyromonas gingivalis
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  • Published: 26 February 2026

Ecological and stochastic determinants of the growth and persistence of the oral pathogen Porphyromonas gingivalis

  • Moemen Hussein1,2 na1,
  • Arnab Barua3,4 na1,
  • Mohammad Qasaimeh5,6,7,8,
  • Matthew Smardz9,10,
  • Patricia I. Diaz9,10 &
  • …
  • Haralampos Hatzikirou3,4 

npj Systems Biology and Applications , Article number:  (2026) Cite this article

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We are providing an unedited version of this manuscript to give early access to its findings. Before final publication, the manuscript will undergo further editing. Please note there may be errors present which affect the content, and all legal disclaimers apply.

Subjects

  • Ecology
  • Microbiology

Abstract

Population density plays a critical role in microbial fitness. However, its influence on pathogen colonization remains incompletely understood. Porphyromonas gingivalis (Pg) is a pathogen that plays a major role in periodontitis. It exhibits Allee-type growth and requires a quorum threshold to replicate. Yet, it is frequently detected at low abundance in vivo. We integrate quantitative growth experiments with mathematical modeling to identify ecological and stochastic determinants of Pg persistence. A cubic Allee-effect model quantifies a quorum threshold below which populations collapse. Conditioned medium from Veillonella parvula (Vp) lowers this threshold, indicating early-colonizer facilitation. Stochastic extensions and Fokker–Planck analysis show that microenvironmental noise enables persistence below the Allee barrier. This behavior is consistent with long-term subthreshold experiments that yield persistent survival. Pg–Vp co-cultures further demonstrate replicate rescue outcomes for subcritical inocula. Vp reliably reaches capacity, constraining terminal phases within the experimental horizon to coexistence or Pg extinction. A two-species replicator model maps these outcomes onto a (β, γ) plane. This mapping restricts accessible regions once Vp is established and suggests interventions that reduce facilitation and limit Pg-associated inflammation.

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Data availability

The datasets generated and/or analyzed during the current study are not publicly available due to institutional data management policies and the use of the data in ongoing longitudinal studies regarding oral microbiome transitions, but are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Code availability

All computational analyses and modeling code supporting this study are publicly available on GitHub at: https://github.com/Moemenhussein11/P.gingivalis-Colonization.

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Acknowledgements

H. H. was supported by the RIG-2023-051 Khalifa University grant. P.I.D. acknowledges support from the National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Dental and Craniofacial Research (grant R21DE034093). H.H., M.Q., and P.I.D. acknowledge support from the UAE-NIH Collaborative Research grant AJF-NIH-25-KU. H.H. and A.B. acknowledge support from Volkswagenstiftung under the “Life?” program (grant 96732). M.H. acknowledges support from the Khalifa University PhD Program.

Author information

Author notes

  1. These authors contributed equally: Moemen Hussein, Arnab Barua.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biomedical Engineering and Biotechnology, Khalifa University, Abu Dhabi, UAE

    Moemen Hussein

  2. Faculty of Engineering, Department of Mathematical Engineering and Physics, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt

    Moemen Hussein

  3. Mathematics Department, Khalifa University, Abu Dhabi, UAE

    Arnab Barua & Haralampos Hatzikirou

  4. Center for Information Services and High Performance Computing, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany

    Arnab Barua & Haralampos Hatzikirou

  5. Division of Engineering, New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, UAE

    Mohammad Qasaimeh

  6. Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, New York University, Brooklyn, NY, USA

    Mohammad Qasaimeh

  7. Department of Biomedical Engineering, New York University, Brooklyn, NY, USA

    Mohammad Qasaimeh

  8. Research Center for Translational Medical Devices, New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, UAE

    Mohammad Qasaimeh

  9. UB Microbiome Center, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA

    Matthew Smardz & Patricia I. Diaz

  10. Department of Oral Biology, School of Dental Medicine, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA

    Matthew Smardz & Patricia I. Diaz

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Contributions

Conceptualization: H.H.; Methodology: M.H., A.B., and H.H.; Experiments: M.S., and P.I.D. Investigation: M.H. and A.B.; Formal analysis: A.B., and M.H.; Writing—review and editing: M.H., A.B., M.Q., M.S., P.I.D., and H.H.; Supervision: H.H.; Funding acquisition: H.H., M.Q., and P.I.D.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Haralampos Hatzikirou.

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Hussein, M., Barua, A., Qasaimeh, M. et al. Ecological and stochastic determinants of the growth and persistence of the oral pathogen Porphyromonas gingivalis. npj Syst Biol Appl (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41540-026-00662-x

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  • Received: 09 November 2025

  • Accepted: 31 January 2026

  • Published: 26 February 2026

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41540-026-00662-x

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