Abstract
Mitigation of the threat from airbursting asteroids requires an understanding of the potential risk they pose for the ground. How asteroids release their kinetic energy in the atmosphere is not well understood due to the rarity of large impacts. Here we present a comprehensive, space-to-laboratory characterization of an impact of an L chondrite, which represents a common type of Earth-impacting asteroid. Small asteroid 2023 CX1 was detected in space and predicted to impact over Normandy, France, on 13 February 2023. Observations from several independent sensors and reduction techniques revealed an unusual but potentially high-risk fragmentation behaviour. The nearly spherical 650 ± 160 kg (72 ± 6 cm diameter) asteroid catastrophically fragmented at a dynamic pressure of 4 MPa around 28 km altitude, releasing 98% of its total energy in a concentrated region of the atmosphere. The resulting shock wave was spherical, not cylindrical, and released more energy closer to the ground. This type of fragmentation increases the risk of substantial damage at ground level. These results warrant consideration for a planetary defence strategy for cases where a >3–4 MPa dynamic pressure is expected, including planning for evacuation of areas beneath anticipated disruption locations.
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Data availability
Updated astrometric measurements of asteroid 2023 CX1 before impact are publicly available at the MPC (available at https://minorplanetcenter.net). The updated orbital solution is accessible via the JPL Small-Body Database Browser (https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=2023). Data supporting the fireball trajectory, photometry, strewn field computations and seismo-acoustic analysis are provided in ref. 82.
Code availability
The proprietary software used in this analysis includes methods for computing the orbit of the asteroid, analysing the fragmentation of the fireball, modelling the strewn field and simulating propagation of the blast wave using ALE3D (https://sd.llnl.gov/stockpile-science/high-performance-computing/proprietary-software). Some of the optical fireball data were calibrated using the open-source SkyFit2 software, which is part of the RMS library available at https://github.com/CroatianMeteorNetwork/RMS. The trajectory parameters for the fireball were independently confirmed using WesternMeteorPyLib (wmpl), which was also used to compute the trajectory and support the modelling of the strewn field. That software is available at https://github.com/wmpg/WesternMeteorPyLib. Probabilities of originating from the Massalia asteroid family were computed using the METEOMOD model, accessible at https://sirrah.troja.mff.cuni.cz/~mira/meteomod/meteomod.php.
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Acknowledgements
We thank M. Alexandersen (MPC) for reviewing and correcting station coordinates in the MPC database. Model wind data was provided by R. Brožková from the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. Data visualization was provided by P. Geoffroy. We thank E. J. Christensen, R. L. Seaman and J. Stone for providing observations from the Catalina Sky Survey. The following camera operators contributed 2023 CX1 imaging to the FRIPON, GMN and UKMON networks: M. Rushton, A. Pratt, S. Saunders, J. Olver, N. Russel and M. McIntyre. Targeted fireball observations were made by V. Devillepoix, J.-L. Devillepoix, P. Devillepoix, A. Favre, A. Greenway, L. Greenway, Y. Trotel and P. Wright, among others. Observatori del Montsec-IEEC recorded the fireball from Sant Esteve de la Farga, Lleida, Catalonia, at a nominal distance of 900 km. We thank B. Gladman for the dynamical computations of the escape route of the asteroid. We thank F. Nikodem, L. Smuła and M. Smuła for providing the coordinates and masses of the fragments found. We thank R. Wieler for contributing to the discussion of the noble gas results. The help of the VERA cosmogenics team, especially S. Adler, R. Golser, P. Steier and C. Vivo-Vilches, is highly appreciated. The meteorite field search was supported by members of the FRIPON/Vigie-Ciel citizen science network, with participants listed at https://www.vigie-ciel.org/2024/10/21/2023cx1-splv-consortium. A.E., D.V., P. Brown and P.W. were supported in part by the NASA Meteoroid Environment Office (Cooperative Agreement 80NSSC21M0073). J.B. and P. Spurný were supported by the Czech Science Foundation (Grant No. 19-26232X). S.A. received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme (Marie Skodowska-Curie Grant Agreement No. 101150536) for the project FLAME. D.F. and S.N. conducted their research at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with NASA (80NM0018D0004). The Czech Science Foundation supported this research (Grant Nos. 25-16507S to M. Birlan and 25-16789S to J. Hanuš). Funding was also received from the Hungarian National Research, Development, and Innovation Office (Grant Nos. K-138962 and GINOP-2.3.2-15-2016-00003) and from the Slovak Science and Grant Agency (Project VEGA-1/0487/23 to P.P., I.S. and I.K.). D. Krietsch, L.M.E. and H.B. were supported by the Swiss SNF and NCCR PlanetS (Grant Nos. 51NF40_205606 and SNF_219860). The VERA cosmogenics team was supported by the ChETEC-INFRA (Horizon 2020, Grant No. 101008324). T.S.-R. acknowledges funding from Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (Spanish Government; Grant Nos. PGC2021 and PID2021-125883NB-C21). This work was (partially) supported by the Spanish MICIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and by ERDF A way of making Europe by the European Union (Grant No. PID2021-122842OB-C21) and the Institute of Cosmos Sciences, University of Barcelona (Unidad de Excelencia María de Maeztu; Grant No. CEX2019-000918-M). J.M.T.-R. acknowledges support from the Spanish project funded by MCIN/AEI (Project PID2021-128062NB-I00). A.J. acknowledges support from the ANID Millennium Science Initiative (Grant Nos. ICN12_009 and IM23-0001). R.A.M. acknowledges support from FONDECYT/ANID (Grant No. 124 0049) and from ANID, Fondo GEMINI, Astrónomo de Soporte GEMINI-ANID (Grant No. 3223 AS0002). D.H. and J.J. were supported in part by the SIAA Foundation Interactive Astronomy and Astrophysics in Tübingen, Germany. The Joan Oró Telescope at the Montsec Observatory is owned by the Catalan Government and operated by the Institute of Space Studies of Catalonia (IEEC). The UK Fireball Alliance meteor camera observatory was supported by the Science and Technology Facilities Council (Grant No. ST/Y004817/1). P.J. was supported by NASA (Grant No. 80NSSC18K0854).
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A.E., D.V., F.C. and B.Z. coordinated the research. A.E., D.V., B.Z. and P.J. drafted the paper. M. Micheli, K.S., A.P., D.F., S.N., L.C., F.O., D.H., J.J., P.D., T.S.-R. and A.E. collected and calibrated the data associated with asteroid discovery, imaging and astrometry. N.M., T.K., T.S.-R., J. Hanuš, M.D., L.B., K.K., M. Birlan, D.A.N., A. Sonka and F.L. collected and calibrated the data related to the asteroid photometry. P.W., P.V., M. Marsset, M. Brož, P. Shober, A.L. and A.E. completed the asteroid dynamical analysis. J.B., P. Spurný, D.V., H.A.R.D., A.E., S.A., R.N., M. McIntyre, D.Š., J. Vaubaillon, K.B., J.D. and the FRIPON International Team (FIT) collected and analysed the data relevant to meteor triangulation and photometry. J.B., P. Spurný, D.V. and H.A.R.D. undertook the fragmentation and strewn-field calculation. F.C., S. Bouley, A. Steinhausser, B.Z., P.V., J. Vaubaillon, A.M., K.A., L.M., J.D., K.B., M. Birlan, S. Bouquillon, S.J., P. Beck, P.J. and FIT collected and calibrated the data associated with meteorite recovery and search campaign coordination. P. Brown, J.A. and L.E. collected and calibrated the data for the infrasound analysis. A.L.P., G.M.-R., J. Vergoz, J. Vergne and L.McF. collected and calibrated the data related to the seismo-acoustic analysis. B.Z., J.G., L.F., M.G., S.P., I.B., J.-A.B. and P.S.-J. collected and calibrated the data relevant to meteorite sampling and characterization. D. Krietsch, H.B., C.M. and L.M.E. collected and calibrated the data in the analysis of noble gas isotopes in the meteorites. P.P., I.S., I.K., O.M., M. Martschini, S.M. and A.W. collected and calibrated the data in the analysis of cosmogenic nuclides in the meteorites. S.d.V. collected and calibrated the data in the analysis of meteorite density. D.R. undertook the blast-wave pressure calculations. P.J., O.H. and P. Brown provided general guidance and improvements to the paper. All authors reviewed the results and approved the final version of the paper.
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Extended data
Extended Data Fig. 1 Trajectory solutions for 2023 CX1 from telescopic and fireball data.
Comparison between the position of 2023 CX1 at the top of the atmosphere as computed from ground-based astrometry and from fireball observations (blue). The selected reference altitude of 101.755 km corresponds to the first observed position of the fireball. Ellipses represent the 3σ confidence level. The initial solution (red) was calculated using altitudes of observing stations as originally reported to the MPC. An updated solution recalculated after correcting the observers’ coordinates and assuming a 20 m positional uncertainty is shown in magenta. The joint solution (black) combines data from both telescopic and fireball observations.
Extended Data Fig. 2 Asteroid light curve.
Asteroid brightness of 2023 CX1, starting at 23:30:02 UTC, phase angle corrected and normalized to a common distance to the asteroid, measured by the TJO (C65, green), St Pardon de Conques (I93, grey), Visjan (L01, red) and Berthelot (L54, blue) observatories. Data points represent normalized magnitudes with 1-sigma error bars derived from the photometric calibration for each individual frame (see Methods ‘Asteroid photometry’).
Extended Data Fig. 3 Synthetic probability maps linking 2023 CX1 to asteroid families.
Synthetic probability maps for an orbit with a given semi-major axis a and inclination i to originate from one of the L chondrite-like asteroid families: Massalia2 (a), Juno (b), and Gefion (c), using the METEOMOD software21.
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Egal, A., Vida, D., Colas, F. et al. Catastrophic disruption of asteroid 2023 CX1 and implications for planetary defence. Nat Astron 9, 1624–1637 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41550-025-02659-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41550-025-02659-8
