Extended Data Fig. 3: Virtual transfer of agricultural production at risk under the 2 °C warming scenario.

GTAP-level agricultural production at risk under the 2 °C warming scenario and virtual transfer throughout the whole global supply chains. GTAP-level (a) surface-water-irrigated agricultural products exposed to snowmelt risks under production-based accounting, (b) imports of surface-water-irrigated agricultural products at risk embodied in trade, (c) exports of surface-water-irrigated agricultural products at risk embodied in trade, and (d) surface-water-irrigated agricultural products exposed to snowmelt risks under consumption-based accounting.