Extended Data Fig. 4: Main effects on the probability of transitions in the Markov model of wasp development.

Transitions corresponding to steps through the Markov model states (represented in Fig. 2b of the main text) are shown along the horizontal axis. For instance, the first transition on the left is 1→3, and the effect is negative (below the dashed line): accordingly, the model fits a negative association (at a between-colony level) between nest emptiness (‘nest state effect’) and the probability that an individual egg (state 1) transitions to larval state 3 in a 5-day interval. Only main effects whose 95% credible intervals do not overlap zero are shown. In the main text, we focus on whether increased worker number and/or worker-to-brood ratio is associated with higher productivity. When considering between-colony variation (‘between-colony worker number effect’ in the figure), worker number increases brood development pace and reduces brood death. Higher worker-to-brood ratios (‘between-colony worker-to-brood ratio effect’ in the figure) increase brood developmental pace.