Extended Data Fig. 3: Predicted probabilities of rainforest-associated mammals, birds, reptiles, and amphibians being threatened and having declining population trends across the four biogeographic realms within the tropical rainforest biome.

The bar plots show the baseline probabilities in each realm estimated without consideration of either forest cover or integrity. The adjacent line plots show the probability of being threatened and having a declining population with increasing forest integrity after statistically controlling for the effects of forest cover (that is, among species with average area of forest cover within their ranges). Data points (1, threatened/declining; 0, not threatened/not declining) are vertically and horizontally jittered to reduce overlap. The bars and lines represent median predicted probabilities from 100 phylogenetic logistic regressions. Each regression was performed with one phylogenetic tree randomly drawn from 10,000 available trees for each taxonomic group. Error bars and the shaded areas of the lines represent median 95% confidence intervals generated with 2,000 parametric bootstraps in each regression. These results were mirrored in rainforest-obligate vertebrates (Fig. 3). See Supplementary Table 1b and Table 7 for sample sizes and model estimates, respectively. Illustration credits: Steven Traver, Ferran Sayol, Birgit Szabo, and Jose Carlos Arenas-Monroy.