Extended Data Fig. 5: Propagating simulated errors in mapping canopy cover and height with the SCI and FSII datasets to statistical models.

The relative importance of forest integrity, structural condition, and forest cover on the odds of mammals, birds, reptiles, and amphibians being threatened and having declining population trends. The underlying structural condition and integrity data for these analyses are a reclassified SCI raster generated by (a) simulating a + 20% error in canopy cover and height derived from multispectral satellite imagery. This +20% error reduced the number of pixels classified as high SCI (values 14–18), effectively simulating underestimates of canopy cover and height (Extended Data Fig. 4b) and (b) simulating a -20% error in canopy cover and height measurements. This -20% error increased the number of high SCI pixels, effectively simulating overestimates of canopy cover and height (Extended Data Fig. 4c). As with the original SCI, the Human Footprint was overlaid on both simulated SCI rasters to generate FSII rasters incorporating the assumed ±20% errors. Our overall conclusions remained robust to this simulated range of potential error in mapping canopy cover and height in the SCI and FSII datasets. Point estimates represent median standardized odds ratios of species being threatened (circles) or having a declining population (squares) generated by exponentiating standardized coefficients (log odds) of 100 phylogenetic logistic regressions. The vertical dotted line represents an odds ratio of 1, denoting statistical non-significance. Error bars represent median 95% confidence intervals generated with 2,000 parametric bootstraps in each regression. Each regression was performed with one phylogenetic tree randomly drawn from 10,000 available trees for each taxonomic group. Separate models were parameterized for rainforest-obligate and associated species for each response variable. See Supplementary Table 1a for sample sizes, Supplementary Table 8 for original and reclassified thresholds of canopy cover and height, and Supplementary Tables 9–10 for model estimates. Illustration credits: Steven Traver, Ferran Sayol, Birgit Szabo, and Jose Carlos Arenas-Monroy.