Fig. 4: Distribution of the current PA network of the European Alps and its future regional expansion for SSP245, considering limited plant dispersal.

a, The top panel depicts the geographic distribution of the Alps over France, Switzerland, Germany, Austria, Slovenia and Italy, while the bottom panel anticipates the conservation overlaps inferred from the top 20% expansion of the current sensu stricto network for each present, 2050 and 2080 scenario. Each SCP expansion was constructed using the CAZ algorithm (maximizing diversity of the whole region) and the reserve expansion approach of Zonation. In total, the overlaps expand the network from ~18% (striped green; IUCN I and II and Emerald-Natura 2000) to ~35% of the study area. b, The conservation overlaps found in a are projected but distributed across national entities and elevation strata, with the y-axis describing how much the PA type (%) is predicted to be politically distributed when the network reaches 35% of land protection. Orange defines top expansion overlaps for two timelines, whereas green is for all timelines. Silhouettes from the Noun Project.