Extended Data Fig. 3: Subsequent partitioning, into ‘rare’ and ‘common’ components, of the Thermophilization and Δβ-diversity change.

Partitioning of the data presented in Fig. 3. The contributions to a) thermophilization (°C decade⁻¹) and b) Δβ-diversity (unitless) were partitioned on the basis of species declining or increasing in occurrences, of their thermal optimum relatively to their ecoregion and whether these species were rare (baseline occurrences < 10% of the plots) or common (baseline occurrences > 10% of the plots). Each dot represents the values of one of the 80 ecoregions (ntot = 80). The dashed grey line delineates the colonization and extinction components. The mean of each component is displayed. White dot; mean value of the thermophilization null model. The statistical difference between the null model value and the original dataset, obtained with a two-sided Wilcoxon test, is also displayed: p < 0.05 (*), p < 0.01 (**), p < 0.001 (***). Exact P values are available in Supplementary Table 1. Boxes; 25^th centile, median and 75^th centile; whiskers, 1.5 times the interquartile range.