Fig. 2: A divergent relationship between macroevolutionary rates and species diversity in Homo.

a, Results from PyRate birth–death models, run across three datasets with different fossil preservation priors (no preservation priors: published FADs and LADs; time-based preservation variability, where preservation is allowed to vary every 1 million years—prior applied to fossil occurrence data from three databases; and within-lifetime preservation variability, where preservation rate is allowed to vary across a species’ lifespan—prior applied to fossil occurrence data from three databases). In the latter two models, the preservation rate was also allowed to vary between lineages. The posterior distribution of the correlation parameter is shown, with the 50% credible interval shaded and the 95% credible interval indicated by the outline. The mean correlation parameter is indicated by a thick line. Results for speciation are indicated in blue; those for extinction are shown in red. b, The relationship between diversity 500,000 years before tip height and speciation rate (tip DR) across the Parins-Fukuchi et al.⁸⁷ phylogeny. Shaded area indicates 95% confidence interval.