Fig. 2: The extinction risk model and extinction scenarios.
From: Threat reduction must be coupled with targeted recovery programmes to conserve global bird diversity
a, IUCN Red List data20 on threat scope and severity were used to assign projected population decline over a 10-year period or three generations, according to previous publications83,43. Data on projected population decline for all species and all threats were used in an MCMCglmm to predict IUCN extinction risk category, using phylogenetic and spatial variables as random effects. NT, Near Threatened; VU, Vulnerable; EN, Endangered; CR, Critically Endangered. b, Four extinction scenarios were used: baseline, in which current, future and likely-to-return threats remained as listed by the IUCN20; complete abatement, in which threats were removed across the entirety of the species range; partial abatement, in which threats were removed from at least 50% of the species range; and minimal abatement, in which threats were removed from at least 10% of the species range. Rattus fuscipes (Rachel T Mason, CC0 1.0) and Quercus robur silhouettes from Phylopic. Globe silhouette from ClipSafari (Sev, CC0 1.0).
