Although commercial fishing activities are expected to respect maritime jurisdictions, marine species are not tied to them. In fact, some economically important fish stocks are transboundary. An analysis published in Science Advances suggests that shifts in species distributions due to climate change will further complicate global fishery governance. Palacios-Abrantes and colleagues used empirical data from multiple sources to identify straddling stocks, which are shared between one or more exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and the high seas (areas inside and outside national jurisdictions, respectively). They report 347 straddling stocks across 67 fish and invertebrate species of commercial interest, with most comprising large, pelagic, migratory species such as tunas. As the input data focus on the more commercially important stocks, the authors caution that these numbers are probably an underestimate. They then used dynamic bioclimatic envelope and Earth system models to project changes in the distribution of straddling stocks under two climate scenarios. Almost 40% of the stocks are projected to shift between EEZs and the high seas by 2030, and more than half by 2050. Although some stocks are predicted to shift towards EEZs, especially in temperate waters, the majority are predicted to move into the high seas, particularly in tropical waters. The authors warn that these shifts could spark international disputes and unsustainable harvests of straddling stocks. Moreover, as only wealthy nations can run commercial fishing operations in the high seas, the shifts would amplify inequalities among countries.
Original reference: Sci. Adv. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adq5976 (2025)
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